Friday, July 30, 2010

GDP: Surprise!

Did you know that real GDP in the U.S. grew at a 3.7% annualized rate of growth in the first quarter of 2010? Instead of the 2.7% inflation-adjusted rate of growth that was originally reported?



Neither did we, until we realized that the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised the inflation-adjusted GDP data going back to the first quarter of 2007 with the advance release of the new GDP data for the second quarter of 2010.



That means, of course, that we get to go back and revise our forecasts, since we incorporate data from recent history into our calculations. The chart below shows how things stand after we do:



Real GDP vs Climbing Limo Forecast vs Modified Limo Forecast, 2002-Q1 Through 2010-Q2 (Advance)

So, instead of missing the bullseye by 1.2%, with the newly revised data, our Modified Limo GDP forecasting method would only have missed the mark by 0.5% to the upside.



But then, that's only going by the advance release - the real target we're after is where GDP will be after the original data is revised for the second time in September 2010.



We've also updated our GDP temperature gauges in the right-hand margin to show the advance release data for the second quarter of 2010.

On the Moneyed Midways - July 30, 2010

Carnival Midway from The Jerk Welcome to the Friday, July 30, 2010 edition of On the Moneyed Midways! Each week, we review hundreds of posts to bring you the best posts we found from the business end of the blogosphere, at least according to the selection provided by the past week's money and business-related blog carnivals.



But quite possibly, the money and business blog carnivals we review each week may have missed what Tyler Cowen has called "the best blog post of this year so far."



The post to which he's referring is this one by StatsGuy of The Baseline Scenario. Titled "Good Government vs. Less Government, StatsGuy wonders if the correlations revealed by the Heritage Economic Freedom Index are really communicating that it's "better" government that correlates with greater economic growth, instead of "less" government, which is how many read the evidence.



It's a very good post, one that would almost certainly have been picked up by the now off-again "Carnival of the Capitalists" in years past. It most definitely would have made OMM if it had been contributed to a business or money-related blog carnival.



But the best post of the year so far? We'll show you the answer to that question in our annual wrap-up edition for 2010 early next year....



In the meantime, the best posts we found among the blog carnivals that are still running are ready for your review!
























































On the Moneyed Midways for July 30, 2010
Carnival Post Blog Comments
Best of Money It's OK to Talk About Money DINKS Finance Kristina says it's okay to talk about money, if you don't do three things: don't brag about it, don't be ashamed of your bank balance and don't be afraid to listen to any financial advice you might hear from the people with whom you might have a conversation on the topic!
Carnival of Debt Reduction Can You Stop Foreclosure & Get Your Debt Cancelled? The Smarter Wallet Lawyer Earl Fischer describes the steps you need to take that might just save your home and settle your debt.
Carnival of HR Top Summer Reading for Business Leaders HR Ringleader Trish McFarlane polls her fellow HR types to find out what they're reading this summer. The good news: it's not all dry HR type stuff - real people could enjoy some of the reading choices too!
Carnival of Personal Finance Saving Money for Opportunities The Best Money Blog John turns Frugal Dad's advice to establish savings to deal with potential emergencies to instead focus on making sure you have the funds you need to take advantage of opportunities. Absolutely essential reading!
Cavalcade of Risk With CRM Tools, Will the Hospital's Marketing Department Diagnose You Before Your Doctor Does? Health Business Blog What's the downside to having all your medical records be available electronically? David E. Williams reports that the technology exists for hospitals to access those records for the purpose of generating and directing specific marketing to individual patients based on what's in those records in The Best Post of the Week, Anywhere!
Festival of Frugality Hit the Links for Less: Some Obvious and Not So Obvious Ways to Save on Golf Free Money Finance Golf was once ranked as being among the most expensive sports an individual could play. Jenna Ellis offers eight suggestions that could help you better afford the game that ruins perfectly good walks!
Carnival of Money Stories My Teenage Son, His Cell Phone, and the Bill for $1,055.20 Len Penzo dot Com Len Penzo discovers that both his cell phone provider and his 13-year-old son take unlimited texting very seriously, as he finds out what unlimited texting is really means in terms of a erroneous monthly bill. Absolutely essential reading!



OMM's Running Index for 2010



Presented in reverse chronological order....





Older Editions



Thursday, July 29, 2010

Predictions Plus Minus Update

Crystal Ball Earth Since January 2008, we've made some 75 predictions where we can determine whether or not they were right or wrong, spanning everything from where stock prices might go next to how many wins or losses certain major league baseball teams would have at the end of the regular season in 2010. But we have an ongoing nagging question: are we really any good at it?



Regular readers of Political Calculations know we take the crystal ball business pretty seriously, providing quarterly updates for all the predictions we've made. Better still, we apply the absolutely unforgiving plus-minus statistic from hockey and basketball, where we gain a point if we're right, lose a point when we're wrong, and score a zero for when the outcome of a prediction cannot yet be determined, or in the case where we make multiple predictions that ultimately cancel each other out.



Ultimately, the plus-minus score counts the number of times our predictions were right more than they were wrong. If we're no better at predicting the future than a coin toss, our plus-minus score will gravitate toward zero. If we're better at predicting the future than that, our score will rise over time. And if we're really bad at prognostication, our score will fall over time.



We say unforgiving because we either hit our defined prediction target, or we don't. Near misses don't count. Which is sad for us because we've had more than a few....



Feh. Enough pity. Let's talk about how we've done since our last update.



We went back over our full track record and found a counting error in our plus-minus score through April 2010, which reduced our score from +24 to +23. We then also noticed that we hadn't closed out the second part of a prediction we made back in May 2009, which dropped our plus-minus score to +22, since it worked out to be a split decision.



So how have we done once we incorporate all the latest predictions we've made since April 2010? For the 75 predictions where we've been able to determine their outcome, we've scored 49 as correct and 26 as incorrect, giving us a plus-minus score of +23. As an alternative way of measuring how effective we are at predicting the future, we can say that things have turned out the way we anticipated they would some 65.3% of the time.



We're kind of curious to see how that might compare with others. We'll have to do some research to find out if anyone keeps track of these things, or if like TV weathermen, it just doesn't matter how often you're wrong!



The table below shows the predictions that we either are still waiting to find out if they're correct or not or have been able to make a determination of whether they're correct or not.















































































Political Calculations' Plus-Minus Score Update, 30 July 2010
Date Prediction Outcome +/- Score
26 May 2009 We pick up on an unlikely correlation between the timing of plunges in the stock market and the results of our preferred method for determining the probability of recession in the U.S. We predict stocks will dive in value around 16-23 June 2009 and 10-16 September 2009. One down, one to go. The timing for the June drop actually coincided with the work week, beginning on Monday, 15 June 2009 and ending a week later. We'll have to see where things stand in September to see if we scored a two-fer here! Update: It was only a one-fer, as stock rose from 10 September 2009 through 16 September 2009. The split decision knocks our score to zero for the two predictions. +0
13 August 2009 We make fun of 47 economists for predicting that the U.S. recession would end in the third quarter, based on the "Cash for Clunkers" program. We point out that the dividend futures data for the S&P 500 has been saying the recession would be over in 2009Q3 for months, long before C4C even became legislation! Too soon to tell. This prediction looks pretty likely, but we'll have to wait for the NBER to get around to declaring the date of the end of the recession. Update: Looking more and more likely. +0
21 December 2009 Using incomplete data for the month of December 2009, economy would dip in the second quarter of 2010, with a slow recovery afterward. We anticipate that meaningful growth in the number of jobs would likely begin with the third and fourth quarters of 2010. We anticipate that the NBER will declare the recession they found to have begun in December 2007 to have ended in the third quarter of 2009, but we make a case for 2010Q2 as a more realistic alternate. Too soon to tell. It will be a while before we get a full confirmation for these predictions. On the potential plus side for us, different branches of the Federal Reserve have used their own models for predicting what the NBER will do to find that July 2009 is the month they will most likely declare to be the ending date for the recession. +0
31 March 2010 Using the finalized data for the fourth quarter of 2009, we project GDP for the first quarter of 2010 will be within 2% of $13,276.5 billion chained 2005 U.S. dollars! We even give nearly 70% odds of GDP falling between $13,136 and $13,417 in the first quarter! We won't know the answer until the BEA releases the finalized GDP data at the end of June 2010. Update: At the end of June 2010, real GDP was announced to be within 0.3% of our target value. Score! +1
4 May 2010 Not having the data we needed to project stock prices, we do something radical - we solve the inverse problem, taking the data we have (stock prices) and using it to project the values we don't have (expected dividends for an unknown future quarter), then using that projected data to predict the data we want (stock prices). We predict stock prices in May 2010 will range between 1148 and 1200 for the S&P 500. Sure, we know we're much more likely to have big errors between our forecast and reality, but how wrong can we be? As it happens, stock prices came in about 2.0% off the low end of our range, as the S&P 500 averaged 1125.06 during the month of May. If only this were one of our GDP forecasts, where having our target come within 2% of the finalized data qualifies as a correct call.... -1
21 May 2010 With over a third of the month's trading days left to go, but more importantly, before it happened, we observed that the future expectations for dividends per share appeared to be deteriorating, indicating that the average of the S&P in May would come in below the low end of our projected range. It's surprising how much timing matters where predictions are concerned. Here, what matters is that we posted our revised forecast *before* it came to pass. After all, if you don't have enough time to make decisions or take actions based on a forecast, what's the point? +1
1 June 2010 Still not having the data we need to accurately project where stock prices will go, we turn to our backwards math again, this time anticipating that the S&P 500 will average between 1007 and 1071 during the month of June 2010. Arggh! The S&P 500 averaged 1083.36 in June 2010, just over 1.1% above the high end of our predicted range. -1
14 June 2010 Another mid-month course correction! Only this time, because we suddenly could see farther into the future with just a portion of the data for which we'd been starving in the previous two months (it still doesn't look ahead far enough to be what we really need - the dividend futures data we have available to us only goes through mid-2011, while we believe the market is reacting to what it expects will be the situation in the second half or end of 2011!) But with that new dividend futures data that only goes through June 2011, we were able to nail down the average target range for the S&P 500 in June 2010 to fall between 1074 and 1118. Since we were watching a lot of the FIFA World Cup during June, let's just say "GOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!" +1
30 June 2010 We predict that the S&P 500 will range between 1014 and 1052 during July 2010. (Yes, still using our inverse method.) There's no question that prediction was wrong for the month of July 2010. Interestingly though, it was correct for the first 7 trading days of the month. More interestingly, our model correctly anticipated where stock prices would go next (1091-1122), but we assumed it wouldn't get there until we were well into the month of August. Our best guess is that the market is a bit ahead of where our model suggests it should be, but we'll have more on that soon. Along with a pretty scary prediction for where it might go next. -1
1 July 2010 We forecast real GDP for the second quarter of 2010 will be within 2% of $13,374.8 billion constant 2005 U.S. dollars (which is how the BEA likes to report it these days!) The advance report for U.S. GDP in the second quarter of 2010 put the inflation-adjusted number at $13,194.1 $13,216.5 billion (constant 2005 U.S. dollars), which means our target value overestimated where GDP would be by 1.4% 1.2%. That's within our +/- 2% target range, so we score a hit! +1
14 July 2010 We make two predictions for the 2010 major league baseball season: The Arizona Diamondbacks will lose around 100 games and the New York Yankees will end the season with about 105 wins. We'll call these predictions correct if we're within +/- one game of the final standings. What can we say? We do some predictions just for fun! We'll find out in October.... +0


Previously on Political Calculations



The following links will take you to our previous prediction outcome reports, which we've presented below in the order they've appeared here approximately every three months beginning with April 2009. You can get the most recent status updates by clicking the "track record" tag at the bottom of the post.



Wednesday, July 28, 2010

MyTaxBurden Calculator Review

What-If Tax Collections vs Household Adjusted Gross Income, Using 2005 U.S. Income Distribution, $0 to $500,000 Less that a couple of weeks ago, we considered the potential implications for poor and middle-class taxpayers if the U.S. Congress decided to punt instead of taking action on preventing the tax cuts passed in the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 from expiring at the end of 2010.



After all, it's not like the leadership of the 111th United States Congress will get around to passing a budget on account of "deficit concerns", so why wouldn't the current majority party in the Congress attempt to play political blame games with the minority party and get rid of the hated Bush tax cuts once and for all, lock, stock and barrel, for the same stated reason?



But in doing our own analysis, we only considered the impact of the change in marginal tax rates that would take effect in 2011. We didn't consider the changes to standard deductions or the changes that were made in things like the child tax credit, to name just two features of U.S. tax law that changed in 2003.



Fortunately for us though, the Tax Foundation did! The Tax Foundation has unveiled the MyTaxBurden calculator, which is designed to do one thing: to help you determine what the impact may be to you should the Congress take one of the following three possible actions before the end of the year:




  1. Allow all the 2003 tax cuts to expire.
  2. Act to extend the 2003 tax cuts.
  3. Act to extend some of the 2003 tax cuts, along with some additional tax credits, as proposed by the President.


User Interface



Calculator-Tape with Form 1040 The user interface of the MyTaxBurden calculator is a bit involved, which is intended to accommodate a very wide range of possible factors that go into determining an individual's federal tax liability.



The data input fields are on the left-hand side of the web page, with the output data fields grouped by column on the right, based upon the three possible scenarios the calculator considers. The "Calculate" button is located below the input fields, which helps ensure users see all the potential options.



The descriptions of what data to enter and what output is provided are simple and clear. Although complex, we found it very easy to understand what kind of data we were supposed to enter as well as what the output results communicated.



We therefore find the compromise between a complicated user interface and the detailed results of the tool to be justified, especially given that completing a tax return is frequently even more difficult....



The tool does offer some features that streamline data entry for individuals depending upon their tax filing status. For example, individuals filing as Single can easily skip past the form input fields dedicated to dependent information, while those filing as either Married or Head of Household have additional options.



We're also fans of the tool's automatic update feature, which users have the option of disabling (by unchecking a box). This is a really nice touch, making it possible for users to change a number of fields without the distraction of having the output fields flicker and change with each edit.



On the other hand, if you want to run a series of "what-if" type calculations where you are just changing one input field, you can enable the automatic update feature and get quick results.



In Use



We ran a scenario for the median income household of 2008, assuming a married couple with one child, whom we assumed to be of Age 12. For the median income of $52,029, we assumed a roughly 60-40 split between the primary taxpayer and their spouse, with the primary taxpayer earning $31,217 (about $15 per hour if working full time) and the spouse earning $20,812 (about $10 per hour if working full time).



We assume our taxpaying household rents rather than owns their own home, so that helps us keep things simple as we ignored the fields for real estate taxes and for additional deductible items like the one for mortgage interest. Likewise, our Age 12 child assumption allowed us to also enter zeroes for both child care expenses and for college tuition.



The only extra line of data we entered was for state and local taxes, where we simply put the figure we found for a household earning between $50,000 and $65,000 in the 2008 Consumer Expenditure Survey.



The screen shot below shows our data input and our results for each of the three situations considered by the tool:



Tax Foundation: MyTaxBurden Calculator, 2008 Median Family Income Scenario

We found it very easy to consider the line-by-line impact between each of the three scenarios. We could quickly and easily see what was either the same or different between each, making it very straightforward to evaluate what the line-item or bottom line effect to our hypothetical household would be.



Speaking of which, for our test case, we find that the household would pay $1,637 more in 2011 than the $2,397 they would pay if the Bush tax cuts were extended. That's some 68.3% higher than what they would otherwise have to pay, thanks largely to the change in the standard deduction and the loss of the higher child tax credit that have been part of the U.S. tax code since 2003.



A maximum of about 12% of the change in the amount of taxes paid would be attributable to the change in the marginal tax rates that would apply for the family. The household would see their marginal tax rate increase from 25% to 28%.



Meanwhile, President Obama has proposed extending the Bush tax cuts for most but high income earners, and even ups the tax credit giveaway by proposing that the "Making Work Pay" tax credit from his first two years in office also be extended into 2011, which would lower our hypothetical taxpaying household's bill to the federal government to $1,597.



As we noted before though, a U.S. Congress with "deficit concerns" so great they've declined to pass a budget to detail their spending could very well just let the President's "Making Work Pay" tax credit and all the tax cuts from 2003 expire, leaving our test case family with a tax bill of $4,034.



Conclusion



The bottom line? The MyTaxBurden calculator is a very well done tool that will allow its users to obtain high quality information of special relevance to them.



The MyTaxBurden calculator, created by Nicholas A. Kasprak, therefore earns our second-highest online tool design award: the Silver Standard. The only thing keeping it from earning our Gold Standard is its very time-specific focus - it will only produce relevant results for the individuals who might use it in 2010 and 2011.



Even so, we find those results are very relevant for users within that period of time, providing high quality information in a well-organized, easy-to-follow layout.



We find that the user interface, while a bit involved, does allow a great deal of customization on the part of the user. We do note that it will be beneficial for users to have a copy of their previous year's tax return to use for reference while using the MyTaxBurden calculator.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

ACLU to discuss their defense of Citizens United this Saturday in Columbus

The ACLU supported the Citizens United vs Federal Elections Commission (FEC) decision handed down by the US Supreme Court in January. Their support took the form of the filing of an Amicus Brief, which is a document submitted by a person or group with strong views or interest in the case but not a direct party to it.

The Ohio ACLU holds its statewide membership conference this weekend in Columbus
www.acluohio.org/Conference2010

Among the workshops will be this one on Saturday afternoon from 3:30-4:30 PM

Pay to Play: Repercussions of Citizens United

The U.S. Supreme Court decision in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission has many people dismayed, believing the ruling allows corporations to contribute to political campaigns. Join a lively discussion about the outcome of the decision and why the ACLU supported Citizens United.
Speakers include Scott Greenwood and Daniel Tokaji.


If anyone is planning to attend the conference (or lives near Columbus and could attend), please consider attending the workshop.

The ACLU needs to understand Citizens United wasn’t about free speech but rather about corporate personhood. The unelected, appointed-for-lifers of the Supreme Court falsely framed the case between limiting speech to have fair and free elections vs. approving corporate-dominated political influence to preserve free speech. This false frame evaporates if corporate personhood — the notion that corporations have constitutional “rights” -- is renounced. As corporate anthropologist Jane Anne Morris has said, “Only if we pretend that corporations are ‘persons’ under the Constitution, is limiting corporate ‘speech’ a constitutional infringement.”

If you can’t attend the conference but are a member of the Ohio (and/or national) ACLU, contact them and express your concerns.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Letter to Senator Sherrod Brown on BP and IEL

26. July. 2010

Sherrod Brown
United States Senate
Washington, DC

Re: Uniontown IEL Superfund Site

Dear Senator Brown,

Thank you for your leadership in speaking out and calling for the British Petroleum Corporation to be held responsible and liable for their role in the horrific ecological and economic disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

There is yet another disaster connected to the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig - a political disaster. The British Petroleum Corporation acquired the authority in the past up to the present time to define the terms of drilling, oversight of the well, capping of the exploded well, and cleanup of the well.

This political disaster of the British Petroleum Corporation being in charge of these functions is due to political campaign investments (misnamed "contributions"), political lobbying, and influence over regulatory agencies (ie, Mineral Management Services, MMS, a part of the US Department of the Interior). The root of the problem is acquired constitutional rights that the BP Corporation and other business corporations have acquired over time.

These constitutionally granted rights have usurped the power of citizens to control their communities, nation, and natural world. The fundamental problem is not corporate power as it is corporate rule.

Your public statements to the media and your constituents concerning accountability of the British Petroleum Corporation is laudable. I hope they intensify to include issues of corporate rule or governance.

A somewhat similar environmental and political disaster exists closer to home in connection to the Industrial Excess Landfill (IEL) in Uniontown, Ohio. The corporate polluters here have also been put in charge of the so-called "cleanup." The regulatory agency here, the EPA, has been compliant to the wishes of the corporate polluters. A real cleanup of IEL has not take place. Those responsible and accountability for the damages, cost and liability have not been brought to justice.

In the case of the Uniontown IEL, each of the three major cleanup components - the groundwater pump & treat system (that was to operate "in perpetuity"), the multi-layered cap to prevent rainfall infiltration of the waste, the expansion of the gas interception control system - have been replaced in favor of continued flushing the site into the area's drinking water system.

Formal public hearings, legal comment periods and EPA written responsiveness summaries were conducted by US EPA per Superfund law prior to the first two components being legally removed from the EPA's amended Record of Decision (ROD). Local citizens opposed both changes to the ROD. Citizens had no input, no due process, however, prior to the ending of the gas control system. This change occurred reportedly at the behest of a corporate polluter.

Shocked and dismayed by this apparent illegality by US EPA, Concerned Citizens of Lake Township (CCLT) turned to your office last year on this issue as well as the serious questions pertaining to radiation /Plutonium issues at IEL. CCLT asked your office to contact investigators and scientists who have provided critical information to the citizens group.

I was therefore very concerned to recently learn that your office had informed CCLT that EPA will not answer the Senator's questions on these basic points regarding when such a hearing/comment period/summary might have taken place on the gas issue, perhaps unbeknownst to the citizens' group.

Experts have cited at least 150 tons of toxic gases generated yearly at IEL. The Agency on Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR - an agency of the Center for Disease Control) expressed health concerns in a 1989 report connected to offsite migration of soil gases at IEL. The report stated: “Significant concentrations of soil-gas may be migrating offsite continually or periodically, but not detected by the present monitoring system…” and “An improved MVS system could intercept all significant quantities of migrating soil-gas.”

I appreciate your staff taking the time to continue pursuing the answers to these questions and others, which affected citizens, certainly deserve. Uniontown’s citizens have long since expressed many of the same concerns now being heard around the country regarding the BP Corporation and compliant regulatory agencies. Perhaps those concerns held are now better understood.

Please continue to raise concerns about the lack of accountability of the BP Corporation and the need for more assertive oversight. The same is called for in our own back yard at the Uniontown IEL and its corporate polluters.

I hope you'll agree the rights and heath of citizens are the most important priorities.

Respectfully,


Greg Coleridge
Director
Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee

Friday, July 23, 2010

Opening Remarks at United National Action Conference

Saturday, July 23, 2010

Greetings! Good Morning!

My name is Greg Coleridge with the Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee and Northeast Ohio Antiwar Coalition

On behalf of the 31 cosponsoring organizations that comprise the United National Antiwar Conference, I welcome you to this historic national conference to bring the troops home now!

Our deepest thanks go out to the Albany area antiwar, peace and justice community who are our hosts, facilitated by Joe Lombardo.

There are roughly 600 of you in this space and thousands more who are watching the live stream of these proceedings from coast to coast and border to border…and beyond.

Those of us who are physically gathered here in Albany have a unique and privileged opportunity over the next 36 hours
- To actively listen to and learn from each other,
- To grapple together on some difficult issues, and
- Hopefully by early Sunday, to have democratically and inclusively agreed on an action plan addressing issues, approaches and strategies that can be taken back to national, regional and local organizations for their feedback and endorsement to end all US wars and occupations NOW!

This is the third national antiwar conference over the last 3 summers (Pittsburgh last year, Cleveland in 2008). There are a few common threads. Each has been larger in attendance than the preceding one. Each has built on the institutional successes and lessons learned from the last one. Each has served to establish and deepen relationships among activists from broad sectors of the peace and justice community. And each has taken place at a time of rapidly deteriorating political, economic, military and social conditions across the Middle East and rising and creating grassroots protests and resistance in the US and the world to the wars, occupations, attacks and planned assults in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Palestine, Iran and beyond.

This last point is significant. Many of you here and no doubt many more watching on their computers have been in the forefront of the varied protests and resistance against the unsustainable US policies toward the Middle East.

Policies of: More troops. More deaths. More money. More debt. More bombs. More injuries. More corruption. More occupations. More drones. More bases. More privatization. More advisors. More dehumanization. More blockades. More environmental destruction. More excuses. More myths. More delusions. More lies. Endless more. When is endless more sustainable?

In response, this past year people here and people watching have organized
- Rallies and marches to immediately end the Iraq occupation in all its forms
- Protests and sit-ins to end funding for the war and occupation in Afghanistan
- Boycotts and blockades of Israeli manufactured goods
- Calls to prevent attacks on Iran
- Flotillas to break the seize of Gaza
- Resolutions declaring that true security comes from spending money on jobs and education, not wars and occupations
- Campaigns to amend the US Constitution to abolish corporate personhood and the legal doctrine that money equals speech.
- And diverse forms of protests and resistance from diverse people who wear everything from military uniforms to keffiyahs to buttoned downed business suits to button plastered hats to marching shoes to anything colored pink.

It is you in this room, hearing this message and others who are not yet activists who are increasingly realizing the madness of it all. The tide is turning. Through actions and campaigns like those just mentioned, these unsustainable wars and occupations will end. They will end. And it will be because of what you have already accomplished added to what strategies and actions that will emerge from this conference

So welcome. Let us begin. Let us engage. Let us grapple. Let us do it with love and respect. But let us not forget our responsibility. To those abroad. To those here at home. To those not yet born who will have to inherit more violence, destruction and waste if we fail to force the politicians and militarists to do what they have not done on their own.

Let us unite. Nationally. As antiwar, peace and justice forces. In this conference. To end the wars and occupations in the Middle East NOW!

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Buy Local Week - Voluntary vs Mandatory

July 1-7 was "Buy Local Week" in many communities in Ohio and across the nation.
Buying local promotes not only economic self-sufficiency but political self-determination.

Voluntary purchasing of local products or from local merchants unfortunately cannot be coupled with mandatory purchases by municipalities or states of local products or from local merchants. Preferential treatment against big box stores or transnational corporations violates the 14th amendment to the constitution the moment corporations gained corporate constitutional “rights” in the 19th century.

Such assaults against economic self-sufficiency and political self-determination will continue forever until corporate “personhood” is eliminated. The Supreme Court over the last century granted corporations 1st, 4th, 5th and other constitutional amendment protections. The recent Citizens United vs FEC decision permitting corporations first amendment “rights” to invest money from corporate treasuries for political expenditures is merely the latest attack on what’s left of our democracy.

Move to Amend (movetoamend.org) seeks to change the US Constitution to abolish corporate personhood. Corporations are not people. As a member of its national Steering Committee, I invite anyone interested in supporting this cause to join over 85,000 Americans who have signed up to join the effort.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Short video: David Cobb on Abolishing Corporate Personhood

This was produced at the US Social Forum last week in Detroit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocKsGNLjMVk

Declaration of Independence from Corporate Rule

Ohio Speaking Tour of David Cobb
(Executive Committee Member, Move to Amend; Program on Corporations Law & Democracy (POCLAD) principal; Green Party Presidential Candidate, 2004)
Cobb will discuss the growing national movement to amend the constitution to abolish corporate personhood and create real democracy

Dates: June 28 – July 3
Monday, June 28 / Youngstown
Tuesday, June 29 / Columbus
Wednesday, June 30 / Athens
Thursday, July 1 / Wooster
Friday, July 2 / Cleveland
Saturday, July 3 / Akron

-------

Monday, June 28: Youngstown
7:00 PM, Talk, Lemon Grove Café, 122 W. Federal St.
Contact: Jacob Harver, 330-301-0282, jacob@lemongrovecafe.com

Tuesday, June 29: Columbus
7:00 PM, Talk, First Unitarian Universalist Church of Columbus, 93 W. Weisheimer Rd
Lodging in Columbus
Contacts: Doug Todd, dougsftc@yahoo.com; Karen Hansen, klh.ohio@gmail.com; Michael Greenman, 614-898-5825, mgreenman@wowway.com

Wednesday, June 30: Athens
7:00 PM, Talk, Christ-the-King Church, 75 Stewart St.
Contacts: John Howell, 740-592-5789, howell@frognet.net; Dick Hogan, 740-664-4028, greenfirecenter@gmail.com

Thursday, July 1: Wooster
7:00 PM, Talk, Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, 3186 Burbank Rd.
Contact: Dave Sears, 330-262-WNET (9638), RenDave@raex.com

Friday July 2: Cleveland
7:00 PM, Talk, Unitarian Universalist Society, 2728 Lancashire Rd., Cleveland Heights
Contacts: Lois Romanoff, 216-231-2170, loisromanoff@gmail.com; Greg Coleridge, 330-928-2301 gcoleridge@afsc.org

Saturday July 3: Akron
10:00 AM, Talk, Maple Valley Branch Public Library, 1187 Copley Rd., Akron
Contact: Mary Nichols-Rhodes, 330-957-6167, pdaohio@gmail.com; Greg Coleridge, 330-928-2301, gcoleridge@afsc.org