The Hottest States for Motor Vehicle Theft

We're trying out Google's Fusion Tables for its data visualization capabilities, so we extracted some data on motor vehicle thefts from the FBI and created the following interactive visualization for the states with the highest per capita rate of motor vehicle thefts (sorry District of Columbia - you're neither a state nor a place where people don't have to worry much about their cars being stolen!):

We're not sure why Washington state's data isn't properly displaying (the state saw 355.1 motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 inhabitants), but our initial impression is that what Google's programmers have developed is cool, if not quite fully ready for prime time.

Democratizing Money: Creating a Public Monetary System

August 30, 2011

Summarized by Kevin Zeese [ed: who did a fantastic job!]

http://itsoureconomy.us/2011/08/782/



This is a session from the economic track of the Democracy Convention held on August 25, 2011 in Madison, WI. The session focused on democratizing money. The speaker was Greg Coleridge whose biography and contact information are at the bottom of the summary. I expanded on his comments and added some links to videos and websites that provide more information.

Criminal Alien Incarcerations by State, 2003-2009

We've been playing once again with IBM's ManyEyes online data visualization tools. The results of today's experiment shows the number of criminal alien incarcerations by state for the years from 2003 through 2009:

SCAAP Criminal Alien Incarcerations in State and Local Jails, 2003-2009

An interactive version of the chart along with the source data are available for you to knock about with as well!

The interactive version will also allow you to tap the numbers behind the chart - so, for instance, you'll be able to see that the large population state of Ohio has seen the number of criminal aliens that it has incarcerated more than double since 2003, growing from 756 in that year to 3,879 in 2009. Meanwhile, the large population state of New York has seen its number of incarcerated criminal aliens fall by just over 30%, from 16,130 in 2003 to 11,096 in 2009.

As for the Top 10 states for the largest reported population of criminal aliens (or rather, undocumented immigrants who have committed felonies or multiple misdemeanors) for 2009, they are:

• California (102,795)


• Texas (37,021)


• Arizona (17,488)


• Florida (17,229)


• New York (11,096)


• Illinois (10,677)


• New Jersey (9,971)


• North Carolina (8,948)


• Colorado (7,574)


• Georgia (7,371)

Altogether, California accounts for 34.7% of the number of criminally incarcerated undocumented immigrants in the United States in 2009, with Texas coming in second at 12.5%, Arizona third at 5.9%, Florida fourth with 5.8% and New York fifth at 3.5%.

Data Source

U.S. Government Accountability Office. Criminal Alien Statistics: Information on Incarcerations, Arrests, and Costs. March 2011. GAO-11-187.

Democracy Convention — Day 5

Move to Amend



The Convention concluded yesterday. The major theme of the plenary was, “Securing Democracy through Constitutional Reform.” After lunch, there was a final Move to Amend strategy session on the work ahead over the next year. Nearly 50 people attended.



Here are 10 observations from Michael Greenman, Alice Faryna and myself (compiled as we’re driving home to Ohio) from these experiences:



1. We have won the cultural frame/meme that “corporations aren’t people.” Hardly anyone a few years ago knew about this concept. It is now much more commonly understood – and opposed by a large percentage of the general public.



2. The real challenge is not ultimately corporations. It’s us. It’s our own limited vision, thinking and actions, particularly concerning amending the Constitution – not just about corporate personhood, but also related to the right to vote and have our votes count, ending money being speech, promoting basic economic rights. We have to take ourselves seriously. We stand on the shoulders of giants. We have to act like it. Our starting point should be to convey that we can actually have what we want in terms of peace, justice and respect for the natural world.



3. We need a mature, serious, methodical and deliberative approach to create a democracy. It starts with US making peace with the world. This nation has grown out of a 500 year war against scores of nations of the world. It is coming to an end – around the world and here at home. The hypocracies and contradictions have never been clear. The ability to sustain a permanent war culture and economy is no longer possible. The new culture, political and economic system requires new rules, laws and constitution.



4. Working with NGOs inside the beltway or trying to lobby Congress given our small numbers is on this issue at this is virtually ineffective. As Richard Grossman said to David Cobb years ago after spending a frustrating session in DC: “I’m not going back to DC unless I’m a tourist or a member of a conquering army.”



5 We should be less concerned at this point with developing the exact constitutional amendment to abolish corporate personhood and money as speech than involving and honoring people and a devising radically inclusive processes for local education and action.



6. We have to relax and take care of ourselves. Democratizing the US Constitution in ways that authentically reflect our values of justice, peace and sustainability is a long-term project. We need to rush slowly.



7. It is shocking that the ACLU supported the Citizen United Supreme Court decision. They saw the issue through the lens of the first amendment rather than corporate constitutional rights. Only if one believes the fiction that corporations are persons is violating corporate free speech a constitutional violation.



8. We will not get where we want to go until we genuinely engage with communities of color. White must examine their unexamined privileges. We must also follow the direction of those communities we want to work with. We must also work to find common ground with principled liberals and conservatives.



9. It was incredibly exciting to engage with others in our sessions: brainstorming, networking, learning, conspiring. We developed a feeling of shared identity and common purpose as part of a growing movement. Being with others helped validate our work addressing what has been considered a “fringe” issue for more than a decade.



10. Throughout history real change (personal and political) has happened when it begins to feel chaotic, when normal and comfortable feelings and conditions are replaced with discomfort and uncertainty. When we begin to start feeling that all is chaotic, the opportunity for evolution is present.



Onward!

The Changing Distribution of Adjusted Gross Income for U.S. Households

If you had to guess, what adjusted gross income range would you say had the biggest gains in the number of households included within that range during the years from 1996 through 2009? Here are the choices:

1. $1 to $25,000


2. $25,000 to $50,000


3. $50,000 to $75,000


4. $75,000 to $200,000


5. $200,000 and over

We won't keep you in suspense. The answer is displayed in the following chart:

In looking at the chart, you can easily see that the cumulative distribution curves for adjusted gross incomes from $1 through $75,000 are within very close proximity to one another for all years shown on the chart. So much so that these curves essentially overlap each other.

And when you look at households with adjusted gross incomes above $200,000, you can see that this portion of each year's cumulative distribution curve runs nearly parallel with all the others. This indicates that there has been very little change in the number of households counted as having incomes above this level.

But the income range that saw the greatest change from year to year for each year from 1996 through 2009 is that for households with adjusted gross incomes between $75,000 and $200,000.

In fact, if not for the growth in the number of households in this income range, the cumulative income distribution curves would be nearly identical from year to year! How different is that observation from what you've likely heard in the media during all these years?

Finally, note the data curves for 2000-2003 and 2009 in the chart above. These are years that coincide with recessions in the United States, where the change in the number of households earning between $75,000 and $200,000 was either flat (2000-2003) or falling (2009).

It is the reduction in the number of households earning adjusted gross incomes between $75,000 and $200,000 that accounts for the majority of any shortfall that existed in the U.S. government's tax collections during these years. And that's something that neither increasing tax rates nor reducing "spending through the tax code" for households with incomes over $200,000 can ever fix.

The numbers just aren't there!

Data Sources

Internal Revenue Service. SOI Tax Stats - Individual Statistical Tables by Size of Adjusted Gross Income. All Returns: Selected Income and Tax Items. Classified by: Size and Accumulated Size of Adjusted Gross Income. Published as: Individual Complete Report (Publication 1304), Table 1.1. Tax Years: 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1996.

MONETARY HISTORY CALENDAR -- August 29-September 4

AUGUST 29



1786 – BEGINNING OF SHAY’S REBELLION

Sparked in large part by personal debt, nonpayment of salaries, and collapse of the national currency, farmers in Massachusetts led by Daniel Shays attack a US Armory. The lack of a focused response to the uprisings led to calls to reforming the Articles of Confederation. The Philadelphia Convention, which followed, rather than reforming the Articles of Confederation, created a new Constitution. While less democratic in many ways, formulated by all white, male landowners, the new Constitution empowered the government to coin its own money, separate from banks and financial institutions.



2005 – DEATH OF JUDE THADDEUS WANNISKI, AMERICAN JOURNALIST, CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATOR AND POLITICAL ECONOMIST

“There was a big party at Morgan Stanley after the Mexican peso devaluation, people from all over Wall Street came, they drank champagne and smoked cigars and congratulated themselves on how they pulled it off and they made a fortune.”



AUGUST 30



1930 – BIRTH OF WARREN BUFFET, INVESTOR

"Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction."



AUGUST 31



1959 – ROBERT B. ANDERSON, SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY UNDER PRESIDENT EISENHOWER

"When a bank makes a loan it simply adds to the borrowers deposit account in the bank by the amount of the loan. The money is not taken from anyone else's deposit; it was not previously paid in to the bank by anyone. It's new money, created by the bank for the use of the borrower." August 31, 1959



SEPTEMBER 1



1764 – PASSAGE OF BRITISH CURRENCY ACT

The Act banned Colonial paper money as legal tender, severally limiting commerce and widening the trade deficit between England and the Colonies. Colonists were forced by pay their taxes only in gold or silver. Many, including Benjamin Frankln, claimed this was one of the major causes of the Revolutionary War.



1894 – AMERICAN BANKERS ASSOCIATION CALLS ON BANKS TO STOP LOANING MONEY TO CAUSE FORECLOSURES

American Bankers Association memo (as submitted in the Congressional Record): “On September 1, 1894, we will not renew our loans under any consideration. On September 1st we will demand our money. We will foreclose and become mortgages in possession. We can take two-thirds of the farms west of the Mississippi, and thousands of them east of the Mississippi as well, at our own price... "Then the farmers will become tenants as in England..."



SEPTEMBER 2



1877 – BIRTH OF FREDERICK SODDY, NOBEL PRIZE RECIPIENT (CHEMISTRY) AND MONETARY REFORM AUTHOR

There is nothing left now for us but to get ever deeper and deeper into debt to the banking system in order to provide the increasing amounts of money the nation requires for its expansion and growth. Our money system is nothing more than a confidence trick... The "money power" which has been able to overshadow ostensibly responsible governments not the power of the merely ultra-rich but is nothing more or less than a new technique to destroy money by adding and withdrawing figures in bank ledgers, without the slightest concern for the interests of the community or the real role money ought to perform therein ... to allow it to become a source of revenue to private issuers is to create, first, a secret and illicit arm of government and, last, a rival power strong enough to ultimately overthrow all other forms of government. ... An honest money system is the only alternative.





------------------------------------------------



Why this calendar? Many people have questions about the root causes of our economic problems. Some questions involve money, banks and debt. How is money created? Why do banks control its quantity? How has the money system been used to liberate (not often) and oppress (most often) us? And how can the money system be “democratized” to rebuild our economy and society, create jobs and reduce debt?

Our goal is to inform, intrigue and inspire through bite size weekly postings listing important events and quotes from prominent individuals (both past and present) on money, banking and how the money system can help people and the planet. We hope the sharing of bits of buried history will illuminate monetary and banking issues and empower you with others to create real economic and political justice.

This calendar is a project of the Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee. Adele Looney, Phyllis Titus, Donna Schall, Leah Davis, Alice Francini and Greg Coleridge helped in its development.

Please forward this to others and encourage them to subscribe. To subscribe/unsubscribe or to comment on any entry, contact monetarycalendar@yahoo.com For more information, visit http://www.afsc.net/economiccrisis.html

Democracy Convention -- Day 4

Diversity and Diversity



Attending the Convention is an impressive collection of people from across the county concerned and working on diverse issues using a range of strategies and tactics. “Democracy” is defined in different ways with varied degrees of emphasis. Subsuming corporations to We the People is also seen from various lights.



I participated in a range of gatherings:



1. It starting in the AM with participating on a panel addressing water as a fundamental right for people and nature – from local to global. To indigenous people, as explained by Alberto Saldamando of the International Indian Treaty Council, rights are not as much granted or endowed as they are fought for and claimed. In fact, rights are seen as collective more than individual. Property, too, is a concept to indigenous people not of ownership, but of relationships. Corporate ownership and commodification of water, therefore, is an alien concept.



I reported on the status of Ohio’s effort to comply with the Great Lakes Compact, which seeks to legalize how 8 states and 2 Canadian Provinces manage the use of and protect the Great Lakes Basin’s water supply the compact requires each state to decide by 2013 how Lake Erie waters are to be used. Earlier this summer, the Ohio General Assembly passed legislation that would allow businesses with withdrawal up to 5 million gallons of water a day from Lake Erie before needing a permit – a blatant violation of the original compact. Gov. Kucinich vetoed the legislation after public and media opposition, as well as criticism from former governors Taft and Voinovich. A revised bill is likely to be reintroduced later. I also spoke about the general trend in Ohio to privatize/corporatize many public assets in the state.



Nancy Price and Ruth Caplan from the Alliance for Democracy followed with descriptions of legislative attempts to protect California water supplies, successful resistance by Bolivians and others to corporatize water, passage of local ordinances in the US proclaiming that water has rights, and how global water corporations have sought to control water sources and systems by formed global groupings (from the Multinational Agreement on Investments, to the General Agreement on Trade and Services to the World Trade Organization to Bilateral Trade Agreements).



I concluding by affirming how corporations seek to escape democratic control in 3 ways: by shifting decision making from a lower level of government to a higher level (i.e. state to nation, nation to international), by shifting decision making from legislators to the courts, and by shifting decision making from the legislators to regulatory agencies.



2. The afternoon began with an impressive plenary on racial equality in the struggle for democracy and against corporate rule. Panelists shared their visions of what racial equality looked like in democracy, whether they felt we were moving forward or backwards in the struggle for racial equality, what specific work for equality they were involved in, and specific recommendations they felt we needed to be doing for racial just democracy. On the last point, a few of the suggestions were:

- Commitment to more self-work to address racism and white privilege among white participants

- Integration of race, gender, class and ability in all our analysis

- Acknowledgement that we will not share the same exact vision for the future

- Authentic inclusion of people of color in our organizations and work

- Real individual and organizational support for communities of color in their organizing activities

- Address fundamental structural impediments to equality (of which corporate personhood is one)



3. The afternoon ended with an intense 3-hour workshop on connecting mental health and racial oppression, which was a deeply moving sharing of personal experiences and assessment of macro blockages to self-expression – which included both governmental and corporate sources.



4. Diversity was in full mode this evening as conference participants mingled with incoming first year students on the main campus at the University of Wisconsin for an evening of music.



It the goal of the day was to stretch, bend and push our intellects and emotions by forcing us to be in unfamiliar yet supportive places, it was very successful.

Democratizing Constitutions Around the World

[This is my handout distributed at a workshop today on lessons learned on social movements to change the US Constitution.]



In exploring how to democratize the US Constitution in the future, we need to not only look at US movements in the past. We must also examine the efforts and movements of other people and nations in the present.



MOROCCO

- Following massive protests connected to the Arab Spring, the government was forced to draft changes to the Constitution that weakens the power of the King – creating an independent prime minister, an independent judiciary and provides equal rights for women.

- In July, 98% of voters approved the changes in a national referendum.



EGYPT

- Mass popular revolution beginning in January, 2011 led to ouster of Hosni Mubarak and call for more democratic Constitution – forcing a national referendum.

- In March, nearly 80% voted in support of constitutional amendments paving the way for democratic elections for a new parliament and president within six months. The referendum divided Egyptians between those who said the reforms were sufficient and others who said the constitution needed to be complete rewritten.



ICELAND

- The 2008 economic collapse was blamed in part by a failure of government and regulatory agencies to oversee financial institutions plunder of the economy and collapse of most banks.

- Massive popular uprisings led to call for new constitution.

- November, 2010 popular election to elected 25 people to form Constitutional Assembly. "This is the first time in the history of the world that a nation's constitution is reviewed in such a way, by direct democratic process," says Berghildur Erla Bergthorsdottir, spokeswoman for the committee entrusted with organizing the Constitutional Assembly. "It is very important for ordinary citizens, who have no direct interest in maintaining the status quo, to take part in a constitutional review," said Prime Minister Johanna Sigurdardottir. "We are hoping this new constitution will be a new social covenant leading to reconstruction and reconciliation, and for that to happen, the entire nation needs to be involved."

- Assembly composed of regular citizens, with the exception of current officeholders and stakeholders.

- Assembly is currently drafting a proposed new constitution. They are using ideas from 1,000 randomly chosen Icelanders — aged 18-89 — who offered their views in 2010 on what should be in the constitution. The Assembly is also accepting ideas from their Facebook page, which covers the weekly meetings in real time.



VENEZUELA

- President Hugo Chavez issues decree in 1999 ordering a referendum to ask people whether a Constituent Assembly should be held to reform the Constitution. Passes with 82% of vote.

- Nationwide elections of 131 members in 1999 of Assembly representing the nation as a whole, regional districts and constituencies, and indigenous populations.

- Only 3 months for public input.

- Three branches of government expanded to 5. It incorporated the idea of popular sovereignty (such as frequent referendums), social responsibilities, the right to rebel against injustice, and the eternal independence of the republic from foreign domination. It also embedded certain human rights (free education , free health care, access to a clean environment, and the rights for minorities, including indigenous people, to their own cultures, religions, and languages).

- 26th Constitution approved by 72% of voters in national referendum in December, 2009.



BOLIVIA

- National referendum for a new Constitution was passed by 90% of voters.

- Drafted by the Constituent Assembly, an elected body that met for 18 months, beginning in 2006. The Constitution was further modified by an Editing Commission before being present to Congress in December 2007

- The Constitution (Chapter Three of Title I) defines the forms of democracy—participatory, representative and community-based—and structure of government. It also establishes a separation of powers between four branches of government: legistlative, executive judicial, and electoral.

- 17th Constitution approved by 64% by national referendum in 2009.



ECUADOR

- Following 2006 election of President Rafael Correa, he called for a referendum to form a constitutional assembly to write a new constitution. The April 2007 referendum passed - 80%

- Elections of new assembly, September, 2007, 130 members.

- Assembly developed a draft consisting of 494 articles, including Rights of Nature.

- 20th Constitution passed in September, 2008 by a 64% to 28% majority in a national referendum





Lessons for us in the US

Following significant uprisings and social movements that have demanded societal change, people haven’t simply called for changing faces, political parties or laws. They’ve called for changing constitutions. We need to do the same. We need to overcome the culture and fear that has caused us to avoid addressing constiutional injustices and to codify our aspirations.



----------------------



More information: Greg Coleridge, Director, Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee, 2101 Front St., #111, Cuyahoga Falls, OH 44221, 330-928-2301, gcoleridge@afsc.org, http://www.facebook.com/greg.coleridge

Democracy Convention – Day 3

Arts and Democracy



Real democracy is achieved, in part, through skills and knowledge. The Convention has supplied plenty of both. But inspiration, creativity and joy essential for attracting and nurturing people over the long haul is supplied through the arts. There's been many examples of artistic expressions and avenues for participation today and this week.



- The wonderful folk musician, Anne Feeney, is here. Two of her great songs are, “A corporation cannot pass the belly button test” and “End corporate welfare as we know it.”

- The Madison chapter of Raging Grannies brought the house down when they performed “Corporations are Persons Now!” Lyrics for the song are at

http://raginggrannies.madisonwi.us/songs/45%20Corporations%20are%20Persons%20Now.pdf

- Many conference attendees have participated in the daily “Solidarity Sing Alongs” held every weekday at the Wisconsin State Capital. Today, about 100 people participated.

- A wonderful play, “The Prosecution of Judge Waite,” was staged this evening. Morrison Waite (from Toledo, Ohio) was the Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court at the time of the 1886 Santa Clara vs Southern Pacific Railroad ruling which first granting corporations constitutional rights…sort of. It was a clever medium for explaining the legal historical origins of corporate personhood.

- A woman in her 20’s at this evening’s plenary quoted at length from Lawrence Goodwyn’s “The Populist Moment” – the definitive work of the Populist movement of the 1870s-1890s. The section addressed one of Goodwyn’s key lessons behind the empowerment of the southern farmers for self-governance – their ability to develop radical self-respect

- Buttons, bumper stickers, t-shirts, and many other artistic forms of political expression are on most tables here.

It’s Football Season at ALEC

We know that late summer represents the beginning of football season.



At a plenary session at the Democracy Convention last night, a Wisconsin state legislator spoke about his experience of joining the American Legisltative Exchange Council [ALEC] and attending -- actually more like infiltrating -- their most recent national conference.



He spoke of a session where a politician publicly stated that ALEC was like a football team where politicians are the players and corporations are the coaches.

The Very Many Varieties of Beer

At this late summer date, the Weather Channel's map of high temperatures in the U.S. looks like this:

Which made us think the following diagram might be especially helpful for deciding how to best keep cool this weekend:

As for how to keep your beverage of choice cool once you've selected it, be sure to see what science has to say on the matter....

Democracy Convention – Day 2

Democratizing Money, Democratizing the Constitution and Building a Democracy Movement in the USA



It was a dizzying day of education and action in Madison. Here are 10 reflections of my experiences, observations and comments.



1. Plenary sessions are streamed live on DemocracyConvention.org. Watch the first 2 days plenary sessions and other workshops at http://www.theuptake.org/2011/08/24/democracy-convention-live-from-madison-wi/



2. People are increasingly interested in taking control of our corporatized money system. The workshop on Democratizing Money was wall-to-wall with people. I spoke on the need, as affirmed in the Constitution, to retake power and authority to coin money through issuing and circulating US debt-free money. This would unshackle our nation from the economic dependency of banking corporations via interest payments. I shared information about HB 6550, the National Emergency Employment Defense [NEED] Act and the work of the American Monetary Institute. A description of the NEED Act is at http://monetary.org/create-jobs-and-improve-the-economy-through-public-control-of-our-money-system/2011/01



3. A movement to fundamentally amend the US Constitution, or any other movement, must address issues of race, white privilege, class and other issues that divide people who have been oppressed. That was the clear message of several presenters at the daylong Move to Amend Affiliates Gathering. At least 50 people pre-registered for this 2-day skill-building and strategy session.



4. There were several very informative skill building sessions addressing Earned Media and Lobbying Public Officials at the MTA Affiliates Gathering. These will soon be posted on

www.movetoamend.org (probably in the Tool Kit section). There were also several excellent handouts provided. One focusing on corporate personhood “Talking Points” will be posted on www.movetoamendohio.org in the next few days.



5. Madison and Dane county, Wisconsin have paved the way in passing ballot initiatives calling for an end to corporate personhood and the legal doctrine that money is speech. Other communities have worked to pass variations of such resolutions. Many more are in various stages of development.



The following reflections are based on the evening plenary, Building a Democracy Movement in the USA.



6. Ben Manski, Chair of the Convention, said the fundamental question of our time is “Who rules?” A democracy movement must be built to win, to acquire the capacity to self-govern.



7. George Friday of the Bill of Rights Defense Committee and Green Party felt the 3 most important steps to take in when we return home are (1) pass resolutions against corporate personhood and wanting our war dollars to come home, (2) build relationships with people unlike ourselves, and (3) have a party. It’s very important that is these troubled times that we take care of ourselves.



8. Dr. Margaret Flowers, one of the key organizers of the upcoming October 6 Stop the Machine actions in DC and key single-payer activist, believes lobbying and working on elections at the present time is basically worthless as our political system is broken. The disconnect between supermajority public views and political votes on taxing the rich, ending the wars, corporate welfare, creating jobs, clean energy, getting money out of politics prove the point that corporations and the military have captured our public officials. We must build a grassroots democracy movement.



9. Nichols, author and writer for the Nation and Progressive, quoting Walt Whitman, said democracy is not of the vote but of the human spirit. It has almost nothing do with the voting booth but whether we are human beings. Politics isn’t ultimately about voting but of equality. He very assertively spoke about the success of people who have created their own media and helped them “leap over” corporate media – and called for all of us to become more adept at using all communication technologies. He also said we must overcome our fear of the Constitution. It’s protected us a little bit. But we’ve got to mess with it. Get money out of politics. People are people. Corporations are corporations. And people are superior to corporations.



10. Finally, I observed to David Cobb this evening that the movement against corporations has come along way over the past 15 years. The energy directed at corporations is now rapidly evolving. For years, when activists at all focused on corporations, it was directed on one or more “harms” or “abuses” (the list of which is virtually endless). What we are now seeing is an evolution to awareness and energy focused on redressing corporate rights. That is quite a shift – from a defensive one-at-a-time approach to an affirmative declaration that human beings alone (include nature as well) should possess inalienable rights. It’s been quite a ride. And it’s just beginning!

New Jobless Claims Right On Track With Trend-Based Expectations

The number of new jobless claims through 20 August 2010 is now out for the U.S., as the number of unemployment insurance initial claim filings rose to 417,000. That figure is well within the range of values we would expect for the statistical trend established since 9 April 2011.

At 417,000 for 20 August 2010, the initial number of new jobless claims in the United States is still 100,000 higher per week than the level that would be consistent with a genuinely "stable" U.S. economy, which was last observed in the years from 2005 through nearly all of 2007.

Side Note: We would describe the media's recent suggestion that levels of new jobless claims "below 400,000" are consistent with a stable U.S. economy as being north of normal by as much as 80,000 layoffs per week.

Now falling at an average rate of roughly 810 new unemployment insurance claim filings per week, the current trend was established beginning on 9 April 2011. At that established rate, it would take 122 weeks, or just over 2 years and 4 months, for the number of new jobless claims filed each week to return to the level that was normal before December 2007, when the so-called "Great Recession" officially began.

Democracy Convention – Day 1

Opening Ceremony / Keynote Addresses



The Democracy Convention in Madison, WI opened tonight with a moving performance of the Call for Peace Native American drum dance group. Two dancers, from tribes located in Wisconsin, combined ritualistic music with dance, including a Circle Dance with more than a dozen hoops, symbolizing unity and harmony of all people of all races and backgrounds.



Mayor Paul Soglin of Madison provided greetings to the hundreds of attendees. Observing what has taken place in Wisconsin since the beginning of the year, he said the actions of Governor Walker over the last 6 months was the result of what happens when we don’t pay attention. The 2 lessons he’s learned since the beginning of the year are (1) investing in infrastructure and education is what improves society and (2) we can’t let conditions take care of themselves.



Ben Manski, Chair of the Convention and Director of the Liberty Tree Foundation, felt that the event was the culmination of hard work of many people involved in many individual movements for democracy that had matured – beginning with resistance of the WTO in Seattle.



Tom Hayden, drafter of the Port Huron Statement which called for participatory democracy, not simply representative democracy in the 1960’s, commented that democracy in the US today is fragmented with our democratic structure build on a historical and present destruction of people and cultures – from Native Americans to the nation’s we are at war with at the moment.



There is a current conflict between the progressive and reactionary forms of populism, Hayden said. Democratic movements always divide over those who’ve been radicalized and want more and those who are moderate and are content with modest gains. Victories of any size also fragment movements. The ruling class is also divided in times of social turmoil – between moderates who are willing to make concessions and solidify most of their power and wealth and those who are absolutists, feeling that to give in on any demand represents a loss of status and power. These absolutists make up a countermovement – which is what we’re experiencing today with attacks on progressive/populist economic and political programs and rules.



One of the major struggles between progressive populist movements for democratic change and counter-movements is over memory, since a large part of current movements is based on the memory and lessons learned from earlier ones.



He said authentic social change always begins with participatory democracy on the margins and ends up impacting representative democracy (elections). Unlike other nations, one device that has always undercut the growing movement for democracy has been war. The US frontier/expansionist culture has been effective at distracting attention from domestic concerns and diverted class and social conflicts by pushing people of color and the poor off “to the frontier” to fight wars or settle lands.



He was encouraged by the recent AFL-CIO statement against the Afghanistan war but cautioned us to pay attention to the “Long War” Pentagon doctrine (calling for perpetual war for 80 years – we’ve 10 years in). The domestic effects of this Long War doctrine are reductions of civil liberties (and difficulties in organizing) and in further domestic economic and social deterioration.



He ended by noting the similarities between the 1950’s and today. Just as the awareness and actions of the Beatniks and Montgomery bus boycotts were the precursors of the organizing for peace and civil rights of the 1960’s, what happened in Madison earlier this year may very well be the precursor to the more profound movement for change in the period ahead.



Cheri Honkla, founder of the Kensington Welfare Rights Union in Philadelphia and organizer of many poor-people’s marches nation-wide, was the final speaker. She said we are living in truly historic times. We must stop trying to adjust to a lower standard of living. To be silent in these times is to betray the millions who are without work, health insurance, or a home while bankers received trillions.



She said fear is being used as a weapon to silence and terrorize us. History has shown when people are no longer immobilized by fear, movements happen. Overcoming fear has allowed thousands of families she has worked with to take over abandoned homes and fight foreclosures. Our quest should be to create an entirely new cooperative society – where people are in control of banks and other institutions that currently oppress people.



By the way, Honkala is running this November to become Sheriff of Philadelphia – so she can stop throwing people our of their homes due to foreclosures.



On a personal note, I have the good fortune to be staying in a cohousing community in Madison called Arbco Commons. With the inspiration and perspiration of several Quakers and others, the 3-year old 40-unit facility is a center of intentional community living and activism in this area. More information about the community is at http://www.arboretumcohousing.org/

Democracy Convention Final Invitation

Received this late yesterday...





One thousand caring, committed people, ready for democracy.

Hundreds of workshops and panels.

Two hundred presenters.

Nine conferences.

Five days.

One Convention.



http://www.DemocracyConvention.org



It all begins tomorrow. If you are moved to walk, pedal, drive, locomotive, or fly to downtown Madison, do it. Because the world begins again tomorrow.



At noon, registration opens up at the Atrium of the downtown campus of Madison (Area Technical) College. Come on down, check in, get your commemorative button (and name tag). Meet other convention goers. Visit the people staffing the informational, book, and chotchke tables.



At 7:00pm, the Call for Peace Drum and Dance troop open the convention with inspiration. They will immediately be followed by Madison Mayor Paul Soglin's welcome to the city. And then our two incredible keynote speakers, Tom Hayden and Cheri Honkala.



The convention runs through Sunday. You will be amazed at the intensity and breadth of the offerings at this gathering. I hope you'll also note that everything at the convention comes back to one common challenge: Building a democracy movement for the U.S.A..



We have posted everything on the website. Check it all out at http://www.DemocracyConvention.org



And then --depending on where you hail from-- come on down, over, or up to the Democracy Convention in Madison.



In Solidarity,



Ben Manski

Executive Director, Liberty Tree

Chair, Democracy Convention

Updated: Approximating Social Security's Rate of Return

What kind of return can you expect to get from your "investment" in Social Security?

We thought it was long past time to update our previous look at that question to take advantage of the updated actuarial projections that were just issued in July 2010.

We then created a mathematical model for the data that represents the "present law" assumptions for the program's payout, which should put most of the calculated internal rates of return in our tool below within 0.2% of the projected return provided by Social Security's actuaries. That is, assuming they don't hike your taxes or slash your benefits at some point in the future!

Update: Minor calculation glitch now fixed!

Birth Year and Household Income Data
Input Data	Values
Your Birth Year
Your Estimated Average Lifetime Annual Income
Household Type	Single Male Single Female One-Earner Couple Two-Earner Couple

Your Estimated Rates of Return from Your Social Security "Investment"
Calculated Results	Values
Low Rate of Return Approximation (%)
Average Rate of Return Approximation (%)
High Rate of Return Approximation (%)

High, Low and Average

If your birth year is before 1930, you can expect that your effective rate of return on your "investment" in Social Security is at the high end of the range presented above.

On the other hand, if your average lifetime annual income is high (more than $60,000), you can expect that the approximation is overstating your rate of return and that your effective rate of return is closer to the low end of the approximated range.

Otherwise, you should be pretty comfortably somewhere near the average approximate value!

Winners and Losers, Generally Speaking

In using the tool, you'll find that Single Males fare the worse, followed by Single Females and Two-Earner Couples, while One-Earner Couples come out with the best rate of return from their "investment" in Social Security.

These outcomes are largely driven by the difference in typical lifespans between men and women. For the typical One-Earner Couple, the household's income earner, usually male, dies much earlier than their spouse, who keeps receiving Social Security retirement benefits until they die. This advantage largely disappears if both members of the household work, which increases the amount of Social Security taxes paid without increasing the benefit received.

The Older The Better

Going by birth year, you'll find that those born in recent decades don't come out anywhere near as well as those born back when the program was first launched in the 1930s. This is primarily a result of tax increases over the years, which have significantly reduced the effective rate of return of Social Security as an investment.

For example, when Social Security was first launched, the tax supporting it ran just 1% of a person's paycheck, with their employer required to match the contribution.

Today, 4.2% of a person's paycheck goes to Social Security, down from 6.2% in 2010, which is one reason why Social Security is now regularly running in the red. (President Obama is actively seeking to continue that situation.)

Meanwhile, employers pay an amount equal to 6.2% of the individual's income into the Social Security program. Since benefits are more-or-less calculated using the same formula regardless of when an individual retires, the older worker, who has paid proportionally less into Social Security, comes out ahead of younger workers!

The Poorer the Better

If you play with the income numbers (which realistically fall between $0 and $97,000), you'll see that the lower income earners come out way ahead of high income earners. Social Security's benefits are designed to redistribute income in favor of those with low incomes.

Living and Dying

There's another factor to consider as well. This analysis assumes that you will live to receive Social Security benefits (which you only get if you live!) If you assume the same mortality rates reported by the CDC for 2003, the average American has more than a 1 in 6 chance of dying after they start working at age 19-20 before they retire at age 66-67. Men have a greater than a 1-in-5 chance of dying before they reach retirement age, while women are slightly have slightly over a 1-in-7.5 chance of dying pre-retirement age.

Morbid? Maybe. But your Social Security "investment" isn't as without risk as many politicians would have you believe!

Visualizing Your Résumé

How can you make your résumé stand out from the crowd in today's job market?

Eugene Woo, the CEO and founder of Visualize.me, describes the problem confronting millions of job seekers:

"People aren't even really reading [resumes] anymore," said Vizualize.me CEO and founder Eugene Woo. "They've gotten too long, and they just aren't useful."

That sentiment is why Woo's company has built an online web app that pulls information about an individual's work, education and skill experience from their LinkedIn profile, and allows them to generate what we would describe as a résumé infographic:

From our perspective, this kind of information visualization is something that we've been wanting to do for some time, and apparently, we're not alone. At present, there is a waiting list of over 175,000 people waiting for a beta invite to use the web app.

Including us!

HT: Drake Martinet

Reports from Democracy Convention

The First Annual Democracy Convention

August 24-8 / Madison, WI



If you want to strengthen democracy where it matters most -- in our communities, our schools, our workplaces and local economies, our military, our government, our media, our constitution -- you will find something inspiring in Madison this August.

More than one conference, this first Democracy Convention will house at least nine conferences under one roof. As the great progressive reformer Fighting Bob La Follette said, "democracy is a life," and "involves constant struggle" in all sectors of society. With the 2011 Democracy Convention, we recognize the importance of each of these separate democracy struggles, as well as the need to unite them all in a common, deeply rooted, broad based, movement for democracy. More than 500 people have already registered.

http://democracyconvention.org/about-convention

http://democracyconvention.org/



I’ll be participating in 3 workshops during the Convention:

At the EARTH DEMOCRACY Conference

Water: A Fundamental Right for People and Nature: Local to Global

http://democracyconvention.org/session/water-fundamental-right-people-and-nature-local-global

At the CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM Conference

Lessons from the Past: Abolitionists, The Women’s Movement, Organized Labor

http://democracyconvention.org/session/lessons-past-abolitionists-women%E2%80%99s-movement-organized-labor

At the ECONOMIC DEMOCRACY Conference

Democratizing Money

http://democracyconvention.org/session/democratizing-money

[the list of presenters has changed]



Between workshop presentations, I’ll be attending many sessions at the Constitutional Reform Conference , which is sponsored by Move to Amend (the organization formed last year to amend the US Constitution to abolish never-intended corporate constitutional rights).



Reports (hopefully daily) will be posted here.

Links will be at:

http://www.facebook.com/greg.coleridge

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Northeast-Ohio-American-Friends-Service-Committee-AFSC/118469198182768#!/groups/123055735045/

New Deflationary Expectations Taking Hold?

Once upon a time, we found that stock prices are a contemporary indicator of the state of the U.S. economy, meaning that instead of telling us what's going to happen in the future, they tell us what's happening today.

So what exactly is the stock market trying to tell us about what investors are expecting for the U.S. economy?

Let's first look under the hood of the S&P 500. Because changes in the growth rate of stock prices are directly proportionate within a narrow range to changes in the growth rate of their expected underlying dividends per share at defined points in the future, we can use dividend futures data along with current stock prices to determine the extent to which changes in future expectations in the stock market's fundamentals are responsible for the changes we observe in today's stock prices.

The chart below [1] shows where things stand as of Friday, 19 August 2011.
We've shifted the dividend data some 7 months to the left, which assumes that investors are currently focused on where the income they can expect to earn from dividends will be at the end of 2011 (the dividend futures data for 2012Q1 covers the period from 17 December 2011 through 16 March 2012.)

Here, we observed that the change in the growth rate of stock prices has sharply decoupled from where their underlying dividends per share would place them. This is a characteristic of what we call a "noise event", which indicates that factors other than those direct expectations are influencing stock prices.

Further, the magnitude of the change is approximately equivalent to the deviation between the two that we observed between April 2010 and September 2010, a period in which deflationary expectations took hold, as it fell between the U.S. Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing 1.0 (QE 1.0) program and the subsequent Quantitative Easing 2.0 (QE 2.0) program, which recently ended on 30 June 2011.

As we saw then, stock prices have fallen approximately 10% from where they would otherwise be without such noisy expectations at work. The chart below shows the S&P 500's average monthly index value against its trailing year dividends per share to put the two deflationary expectation driven noise events into perspective:

This second chart also provides some insight into the short term noise event we saw from March through April 2011 in our first chart. Here, we are seeing the effects of adjustments the Federal Reserve made to its QE 2.0 program, as it appears that the U.S. central bank was indeed targeting specific stock price levels to correspond with the S&P 500 index' dividends per share in setting the amount of positive inflation generating quantitative easing they were doing at that time.

In effect, once stock prices reached a level that would be consistent the major trend in stock prices that existed from June 2003 through December 2007 for the similar level of dividends per share (shown as the green dashed line in the second chart), the Fed took their foot off the QE gas pedal. That brief deflationary adjustment then shows up as the short term noise event during these two months in our first chart.

Surveying the currently developing economic situation, Jim Hamilton anticipates the Fed's next move with respect to the apparent resurgence of deflationary expectations:

And in response, the Fed should do what, exactly? A new phase of large-scale asset purchases (which doubtless would be referred to in the press as QE3) could sop up a few more percent of publicly-held Treasury debt. Conceivably that could put pressure on the nominal or TIPS yields to decline even further, and I suppose that one might hope that a 10-year real Treasury yield of -0.2% would be slightly more stimulative than the current real yield around zero.

I would suggest that the more important and achievable goal for the Fed should be to keep the long-run inflation rate from falling below 2%. The reason I say this is an important goal is that I believe the lesson from the U.S. in the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s is that exceptionally low or negative inflation rates can make economic problems like the ones we're currently experiencing significantly worse. By announcing QE3, the Fed would be sending a clear signal that it's not going to tolerate deflation, and I expect that would be the primary mechanism by which it could have an effect. Perhaps we'd see the effort framed as part of a broader strategy of price level targeting.

Once that happens, if the Fed continues to use stock prices as its gauge for setting the amount of quantitative easing it will do, we can expect stock prices to begin increasing in response. We anticipate that the market will bottom either this month or in September as the Fed initiates such a program.

Notes

[1] This is perhaps the most complex chart we use to analyze the stock market. In addition to a frequently changing level of change in the expected growth rates of dividends per share and stock prices, investors can shift their focus to different points of time in the future as well, which is why we shift the position of the dividend data from right to left.

Over time, the two track each other within a narrow band of variation quite closely (except during large noise events), which would be easier to see on a time-lapse version of the chart. One important thing to note is that as shown, the historic data for dividends per share shows their final recorded value, rather than the level they were when the changes in expectations they represent were changing stock prices.

MONETARY HISTORY CALENDAR -- August 22-28

AUGUST 23



1935 – PASSAGE OF BANKING ACT

The law made the FDIC a permanent agency and raised the deposit insurance level to $5,000.

The Federal Reserve System was reformed with the transformation of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors to the Board of Governors. All board members were appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate and the term of service was expanded to 14 years. Open-market operations were formalized in the Federal Open Market Committee and the Governors were allowed to determine interest rates and bank reserve requirements. These “reforms,” however, were window dressing. The power and authority to issue money as debt was retained in the hands of the private Federal Reserve and private banking corporations. Keeping reserve requirement decisions in the hands of the Fed only invited speculation and risk (reserve requirements are the ratio of money banks lend in excess of money they actually possess “in reserve” to cover loans. Banks loan many times the amount of funds in their reserve).



AUGUST 24



1916 – BIRTH OF ROBERT DE FREMERY, AUTHOR, RIGHTS VS PRIVILEGES

"It is not obvious that there are serious defects in our banking system and our tax system that deprive most of us of fundamental rights and bestow enormous privileges on others? How many riots must we endure? How many prisons must we build? How many of our rights must we lose? How many of our young people must be sent away to fight in foreign wars before we decide that enough is enough?"



1922 – BIRTH OF HOWARD ZINN

"Whether you have a Republican or a Democrat in power, the Robber Barons are still there…Under the Clinton administration more mergers of huge corporations took place that had ever taken place before under any administration…Whether you have Republicns or Democrats in power, big business is the most powerful voice in the halls of Congress and in the ears of the President of the U.S."





Why this calendar? Many people have questions about the root causes of our economic problems. Some questions involve money, banks and debt. How is money created? Why do banks control its quantity? How has the money system been used to liberate (not often) and oppress (most often) us? And how can the money system be “democratized” to rebuild our economy and society, create jobs and reduce debt?

Our goal is to inform, intrigue and inspire through bite size weekly postings listing important events and quotes from prominent individuals (both past and present) on money, banking and how the money system can help people and the planet. We hope the sharing of bits of buried history will illuminate monetary and banking issues and empower you with others to create real economic and political justice.

This calendar is a project of the Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee. Adele Looney, Phyllis Titus, Donna Schall, Leah Davis, Alice Francini and Greg Coleridge helped in its development.

Please forward this to others and encourage them to subscribe. To subscribe/unsubscribe or to comment on any entry, contact monetarycalendar@yahoo.com For more information, visit http://www.afsc.net/economiccrisis.html

MONETARY HISTORY CALENDAR -- August 22-28

AUGUST 23 1935 – PASSAGE OF US BANKING ACT

The law made the FDIC a permanent agency and raised the deposit insurance level to $5,000.

The Federal Reserve System was reformed with the transformation of the Federal Reserve Board of Directors to the Board of Governors. All board members were appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate and the term of service was expanded to 14 years. Open-market operations were formalized in the Federal Open Market Committee and the Governors were allowed to determine interest rates and bank reserve requirements. These “reforms,” however, were window dressing. The power and authority to issue money as debt was retained in the hands of the private Federal Reserve and private banking corporations. Keeping reserve requirement decisions in the hands of the Fed only invited speculation and risk (reserve requirements are the ratio of money banks lend in excess of money they actually possess “in reserve” to cover loans. Banks loan many times the amount of funds in their reserve).



AUGUST 24 1916 – BIRTH OF ROBERT DE FREMERY, AUTHOR, RIGHTS VS PRIVILEGES

"It is not obvious that there are serious defects in our banking system and our tax system that deprive most of us of fundamental rights and bestow enormous privileges on others? How many riots must we endure? How many prisons must we build? How many of our rights must we lose? How many of our young people must be sent away to fight in foreign wars before we decide that enough is enough?"

1922 – BIRTH OF HOWARD ZINN

"Whether you have a Republican or a Democrat in power, the Robber Barons are still there…Under the Clinton administration more mergers of huge corporations took place that had ever taken place before under any administration…Whether you have Republicns or Democrats in power, big business is the most powerful voice in the halls of Congress and in the ears of the President of the U.S."



NOTE: National talk show host Thom Hartmann recently spoke out in support of the National Emergency Employment Defense [NEED] Act, sponsored by Rep. Dennis Kucinich, which calls for the issuance and circulation of US debt-free money to fund infrastructure programs. To read more about the NEED Act, go to http://moneyreform.wordpress.com/2011/01/





Why this calendar? Many people have questions about the root causes of our economic problems. Some questions involve money, banks and debt. How is money created? Why do banks control its quantity? How has the money system been used to liberate (not often) and oppress (most often) us? And how can the money system be “democratized” to rebuild our economy and society, create jobs and reduce debt?

Our goal is to inform, intrigue and inspire through bite size weekly postings listing important events and quotes from prominent individuals (both past and present) on money, banking and how the money system can help people and the planet. We hope the sharing of bits of buried history will illuminate monetary and banking issues and empower you with others to create real economic and political justice.

This calendar is a project of the Northeast Ohio American Friends Service Committee. Adele Looney, Phyllis Titus, Donna Schall, Leah Davis, Alice Francini and Greg Coleridge helped in its development.

Please forward this to others and encourage them to subscribe. To subscribe/unsubscribe or to comment on any entry, contact monetarycalendar@yahoo.com For more information, visit http://www.afsc.net/economiccrisis.html

Science Creates the Perfect Piece of Toast

You might not have realized it, but there is a mathematical formula that defines how to produce the perfect piece of toast:

They spent three months experimenting with gadgets and grills and packs of butter to find out how thick the spread should be.

Finally, they concluded that the answer was... about ONE SEVENTH of the thickness of the bread.

The formula, commissioned by UK butter producer Lurpak, was crafted by food scientists at the University of Leeds and designed to produce the optimum combination of butter and bread for a slice of toast. The elements of the formula are as follows:

• ha = thickness of bread
  
• hb = thickness of butter
  
• Cpa = Specific heat capacity at constant pressure for bread
  
• Cpb = Specific heat capacity at constant pressure for butter
  
• ρa = Density of bread
  
• ρb = Density of butter
  
• T = Temperature of toasted bread
  
• wa = Weight of bread
  
• wb = Weight of butter
  

Fortunately, Professor Bronek Wedzicha saved us the trouble of researching the various values of these components and gets straight to what we need to know to "release Lurpak's maximum taste potential on your slice of bread":

The calculations should result in hot toast with islands of butter which have not quite melted.

Prof Wedzicha said: “The release of flavour when butter is only partly melted intensifies the taste, along with a cooling sensation in the mouth which is enjoyed by those who eat buttered toast.

"If butter is allowed to soak into toast, the effect is less."

The scientists discovered that the unmelted butter must have a temperature just below body heat for it to melt in the mouth.

Researcher Dr Jianshe Chan, said: "It gives you a melting feeling and smooths the toast."

The team said the bread should be toasted to at least 120°C until it turns golden brown.

The butter should be taken from the fridge with a temperature of 5°C and spread while the toast is about 60-70°C.

A hard butter with a high melting point temperature creates more pools of unmelted butter.

We assume that the formula is really giving the thickness of the pad of butter, as cut from a standard stick, which would be applied when the just-toasted bread has cooled to approximately 60° Celsius. Kind of like what the picture below implies:

Because we can't resist the opportunity to create a tool to solve real life problems like this, here's our tool for doing the math developed by the Leeds food scientists:

Toasting Data
Input Data	Values
Bread Thickness [millimeters]
Bread Specific Heat [kJ/kg/°C]
Butter Specific Heat [kJ/kg/°C]
Density of Bread [g/L]
Density of Butter [g/L]
Temperature of Toasted Bread [°C]
Weight of Bread Slice [g]

Optimum Buttering Parameters
Calculated Results	Values
Thickness of Butter [mm]
Weight of Butter [g]

No, we really can't make this sort of thing up. But before you think that's the end of it, new scientific research has revealed the one vital piece of information missing from the formula above: the optimum toasting time for a slice of bread!

Now, after sacrificing 2,000 pieces of bread, and polling nearly 2,000 people, more research is claiming to have discovered the ideal cooking time for "the ultimate balance of external crunch and internal softness": precisely 216 seconds.

But wait, there's more!

The report, authored Bread expert Dr. Dom Lane, a consultant food researcher, and commissioned by Vogel, a bread company, also provides additional tips for those seeking toast nirvana:

1. The best bread is 14 mm in width, and, ideally, it's just come fresh from the fridge.



2. Butter immediately, before the toast becomes too cool to melt it. (Who knew?)



3. The ideal amount of butter is .44 grams per square inch. Too much butter, the study explains, and the "toast will lose crucial rigidity, too little, and the moisture lost during toasting will not be replaced."



4. Lift the toast your mouth carefully. Otherwise, "crucial butter may be lost on entry."



5. And to clarify: "Obviously the shape of the toast once taken into the mouth doesn't effect the flavour or texture."

Science at work, ladies and gentlemen. And to show that no stone has been left unturned in working out how to craft the perfect piece of toast, here's what else Dr. Lane discovered:

Both sides of the bread should be cooked at the same time, using a toaster rather than a grill, to help 'curtail excessive moisture loss'.

And:

... the cooked and buttered slice should be cut once, diagonally, and served on a plate warmed to 45 degrees Celsius, to minimise condensation beneath the toast.

The reason for the one, diagonal cut, of course, is that "crucial butter and other toppings may be lost on entry, deposited on cheek or lip. We therefore recommend a triangular serving for ease of consumption".

Clearly, after all this scientific research, if you can't make a perfect piece of toast, it's your own damn fault.

US, China Trade Decelerates Faster

What can international trade data tell us about the current state of the U.S. economy?

Quite a lot, actually! Previously, we found that we can use the change in the growth rate of U.S. imports from and U.S. exports to China to diagnose the economic health of each nation. We found that when an economy is growing, it will draw in a goods and services from outside its borders at a growing rate, while the opposite appears to be true for an economy that is contracting.

The chart below shows what we see for the U.S. and China through June 2011:

What we observe is that the economies of both the U.S. and China continue to realize slowing rates of trade growth, indicating that both economies are continuing to decelerate. The rate at which China's more strongly growing economy is pulling in goods and services from the United States is falling from the levels recorded in 2010, however the big story is found in the more severely falling level of China's exports to the United States.

We now observe that the growth rate of U.S. imports from China is at near-recessionary levels, confirming the declining economic situation of the United States through the first half of 2011. If we follow the current trend back to its peak, we observe that the decline really began in the middle of 2010.

As we've seen with the current U.S. employment situation, for all practical purposes, there has effectively been no sustained improvement in the U.S. economy since that time.